Where has the will gone?
Theoretically terrorism should never be easier
Disclaimer - I do not advocate for violence or terrorism.
Some readers might be aware of the concept of 4GW - forth generation warfare. The term has been around for at least 20 years. Let us crib from John Robb who was one of the more forward thinkers who explored the implications of this on his excellent blog Global Guerrillas:
The generational development of warfare can be outlined as:
First generation -- wars of Napoleon, conscription and firearms (the decline of mercenaries).
Second generation -- the US civil war and WW1, firepower and nation-state alignment of resources to warfare.
Third generation -- WW2, maneuver and armored warfare.
Fourth generation -- ad hoc warriors and moral conflict.
Ad-hoc warriors we can take to mean the old adage “One man’s freedom fighter is another man’s terrorist”. Moral conflict is all around you if you haven’t been paying attention. It has only increased in propensity and intensity as diversity has increased within Western countries.
Key to 4GW is also the notion of the power asymmetrical attacks and how those can weaken institutions. An example might be an attack on a power station that disrupts power and drives further distrust with local government. The cost dynamic has radically changed in what can be done by the lone actor both in terms of horror and effectiveness. In terms of horror an unfortunate example that springs to mind was the Nice truck attack in 2016. It killed 86 people. Compare this to the last suicide bombing in the UK which killed 22. In fact the most recent terror attack in the UK was also the lowest tech one and has had the most oversized impact. The riots and draconian government response have certainly been a perfect example of escalating moral conflict.
In the examples of both Nice and the Southport stabbing extremely low technical know-how was required. In the latter a simple knife and in the former knowing how to drive a truck. The above example then is an extremely curious and misguided claim. The cost to deliver terrorism has pretty much always been zero in some realms. What is needed is a high amount of will and murderous intent. What McNealy suggests as a terror attack requires considerably more sophistication and effort and technical know-how to accomplish. This introduces complexity and increased risk. In my mind this is another example of an otherwise seemingly smart person being completely oblivious to reality.
Let us not abandon the idea that McNealy suggest though. We can be charitable. Perhaps the cost he refers to here is the assumed loss of your own life or freedom. This angle I can understand and am not ashamed to admit that I’m not sure what the authorities ability to track said drone operator would be. I would assume though that the more tracks such a person or group could cover would raise the cost in other areas. There is never a totally free lunch. In this scenario or others like it drone attacks on this scale could cause mass casualty incidents and perhaps the perpetrators could get away with it for a period of time. Is this something particularly new?
Not really:
These two individuals terrorized DC very effectively with an incredibly low tech approach. They used a nondescript car and shooting out of the trunk to achieve their reign of terror:
People seem to forget that in total these guys killed 17 people over a 10 month span. It is not implausible that they might have gotten away with many of these murders either. Not is it implausible to imagine a more co-ordinated set of attackers multiplying this style of terror and it being difficult to stop. Uncomfortable truths.
This isn’t to say that drones won’t be used or be effective as suggested. They are already being used to cause death and destruction very effectively. The point is that whilst technology increases opportunity the will doesn’t increase with technology. Intellectual barriers cut both ways - the smarter you are to learn and do all the drone stuff the less inclined towards maniacal violence (on average, exceptions prove the rule). Lower IQ, angrier individuals reach the violence thresh hold sooner and as the previous examples show they don’t have to be that smart to workout how to inflict mass death and terror if they are willing to sacrifice themselves. There are many more examples of this we could look at.
State Actors?
Shifting focus away from lone wolves who want to kill people what about attacking infrastructure. Nordstream is a great recent example but how many recall the Metcalf power station attack. It caused 15$million worth of damage and remains unsolved. It has been speculated that perhaps it was an inside job aka a disgruntled employee letting off some steam. Either way it was a pretty eye opening attack for some. It remains something that could be scaled up relatively easily by a State actor.
This is where we cross into shadier territory. It sounds to me like great spy novel stuff. Rainbow Six esque. The Israelis went to great lengths with stuxnet in Iran but what is stopping Russia or China sending in some highly trained operatives through the porous borders with drones with serious payloads of C4. Scale this up and you could take out power in many places. It would do great damage, be plausibly deniable, and it doesn’t have to even to be the start of something grander. Just a thumb in the eye tit for tat style retaliation. It hasn’t happened, yet. To me this kind of State actor scenario is more plausible - the cost and effectiveness clearly applies here more than in the bog standard terror attacks we discussed above.
In fact such a style of attack has had some evidence of happening in recent months:
Western security officials suspect Russian intelligence was behind a plot to put incendiary devices in packages on cargo planes headed to North America, including one that caught fire at a courier hub in Germany and another that ignited in a warehouse in England.
Poland said last month that it has arrested four people suspected to be linked to a foreign intelligence operation that carried out sabotage and is searching for two others. Lithuania's prosecutor general Nida Grunskiene said Tuesday there were an unspecified number of people detained in several countries, offering no elaboration.
Smart isn’t it? Instead of taking down a civilian airliner - which is quite an insane escalation what about taking down some cargo airliners? Small number of civilian deaths which whilst outrageous could be overlooked and it would slow down global trade and cause panic. Shipping costs and time would increase. An outsized effect for small cost. To put it in business speak - ‘a great return on investment’. This is why I think a co-ordinated set of power station attacks with drones is slightly more plausible than lone lunatics using drones to douse a parade in gasoline as was suggested by Rob McNealy.
Will
Either way we still end up back at the question of will. Whether or not you think increased drone availability has actually lowered the cost of terror the will still needs to be there. The instability, the homicidal desire, the ability to actually go through with it. The ideas and those that promote violence like this have to be active and finding an audience willing to listen. Islamist acts of terror are still the most likely and prevalent across the West at this time. For all the media gas-lighting about far right terrorism the numbers and statistics don’t lie.
Technology alone is never enough to drive action - something deeper has to be present. The insane ramblings of a transchool shooter or the devoutness of the Islamist going after the infidel. The anti-white rage of black terrorists also exists - we saw that at Waukesha on a larger scale but that also happens more sporadically from these impulsive individuals. Be aware on NYC subway platforms.
Personally I’m actually grateful most people lack the will required for such horrors. This coming from a violence respecter. It is just reality though. We could delve into numerous theories as to why that is - perhaps it is as I alluded to above that the more intelligent are generally not so violently inclined? Perhaps Islamism has been diffused more and more as they are seduced by Western liberalism that they encounter? Perhaps more of them feel like they are ‘winning’? I’m not in a position to make a strong argument for any of those, and things could change. Perhaps some crazy leftists who are smarter will start to plan something horrific to target a rally of those they hate - scary stuff to consider.
Lastly it is worth looking at the lone ‘other’ ideology that might be motivated to engage in such action. Eco terrorists. Some kind of spiritual successor to Earth First. I’ve left this to last because in truth I think history suggests these kind of people might actually be the ones willing to carry out such attacks. For those unfamiliar eco-terrorism has had a relatively active history in the US but because most of their actions have not focused on killing large numbers of people it tends to slip under the radar. Such groups do also tend to attract slightly smarter people who have qualms about random killings. Briefly though the eco-terrorists past actions suggest that infrastructure style protest attacks could appeal to them. The most recent example of this that comes to mind was an attack on a gas pipeline in the elite town of Aspen in 2020 that cut off hear to thousands of people. Graduating from attacking ski-resorts and logging operations to infrastructure attacks isn’t a huge leap. After all we’ve seen the growth in popularity of these eco-terrorists in Europe who shut down motorways.
Ultimately though these surface level claims that new technologies like drones make terror easier don’t stand up to full scrutiny. However I am somewhat bullish that State level actors could leverage this. Much is made of the multi-polarity bros and what they have to say, those powers might consider such attacks worthwhile. It’s hard to separate fact from fiction regarding these Russian fire bombing claims - if Putin is as smart as people claim why would he antagonize Trump admin that seems willing to help Ukraine sue for an unfavorable peace? Maybe if the Chinese decide to retake Taiwan though, now that is an interesting scenario. Imagine it, the news starts to break that Chinese ships and troops are moving towards Taiwan and at the same time co-ordinated attacks on US power infrastructure plunge much of the country into darkness or sweltering heat or freezing cold.
We may yet live to see such things.